Earthquake recurrence time and patterns of forerunning earthquakes for selected subduction and collision zones

Abstract

We analyze various data from selected subduction and collision zones, including Japan and Himalaya-Nepal regions. In the first case, we estimate the expected recurrence times of large earthquakes within a given magnitude range as functions of the Gutenberg-Richter’s b values, for a given geodetic moment accumulation rate. It is argued, that the b value is related to rupture propagation conditions and asperity distribution, whereas the geodetic moment rate is controlled by the seismic moment budget derived from seismic and geodetic data. In the second case, we reveal the seismicity patterns and underlying asperity structures by using topological data analysis methods. In particular, we create graphs representing the forerunning earthquakes. We use the graph characteristics to distinguish among different seismicity patterns and scenarios. We argue that changes of these characteristics in time and space can be used for the task of seismicity forecasting.